Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for MEGH-15 Off-shore from 05 Nov 2015 06:00 UTC to 08 Nov 2015 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MEGH-15

Off-shore

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MEGH-15 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	60 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (08 Nov 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	185 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

185 km/h Current Max.

Up to 85000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	05 Nov 2015 06:00	111	---	No people	Somalia, Yemen
2	05 Nov 2015 12:00	111	---	No people	Somalia, Yemen
3	05 Nov 2015 18:00	148	---	60 thousand	Somalia, Yemen
4	06 Nov 2015 00:00	148	---	60 thousand	Somalia, Yemen
5	06 Nov 2015 06:00	148	---	70 thousand	Somalia, Yemen
6	06 Nov 2015 12:00	139	---	40 thousand	Somalia, Yemen
7	06 Nov 2015 18:00	120	---	20 thousand	Somalia, Yemen
8	07 Nov 2015 00:00	139	---	20 thousand	Somalia, Yemen
9	07 Nov 2015 06:00	120	---	250 thousand	Yemen
10	07 Nov 2015 12:00	120	---	350 thousand	Somalia, Yemen
11	07 Nov 2015 18:00	176	---	100 thousand	Yemen
12	08 Nov 2015 00:00	194	---	80 thousand	Yemen
13	08 Nov 2015 06:00	204	---	150 thousand	Yemen
14	08 Nov 2015 12:00	185	---	80 thousand	Yemen

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	05 Nov 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.1, 64.9
2	05 Nov 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.9, 63.9
3	05 Nov 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	13.7, 63.4
4	06 Nov 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	13.4, 62.7
5	06 Nov 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.1, 61.8
6	06 Nov 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.9, 60.8
7	06 Nov 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13, 60.9
8	07 Nov 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	12.9, 60
9	07 Nov 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	12.8, 59.2
10	07 Nov 2015 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	12.7, 58.3
11	07 Nov 2015 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	6400 people	12.8, 57.2	Yemen
12	08 Nov 2015 00:00	Category 2	167	39000 people	57000 people	12.8, 56.1	Yemen
13	08 Nov 2015 06:00	Category 3	204	57000 people	57000 people	12.6, 54.9	Yemen
14	08 Nov 2015 12:00	Category 3	185	6200 people	84000 people	12.8, 53.4	Yemen
14	09 Nov 2015 00:00	Category 2	176	no people	35000 people	12.6, 51	Somalia
14	09 Nov 2015 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	25000 people	12.7, 48.7	Yemen
14	10 Nov 2015 00:00	Category 1	139	38000 people	920000 people	12.9, 46.8	Yemen
14	10 Nov 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	2.7 million people	13.4, 45.7	Yemen
14	11 Nov 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	4 million people	14.5, 44.8	Yemen
14	12 Nov 2015 12:00	Tropical depression	28	no people	no people	15.6, 44.3	Yemen

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Yemen	Aden
Yemen	Abyan

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Socotra	SCT	46	Civ.	Unpaved	No	8200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Hadibu		Yemen

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Ghubbah, Yemen. This height is estimated for 08 Nov 2015 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (27 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 07 Nov 2015 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Nov 2015 11:00	Ghubbah	Yemen	0.3
	08 Nov 2015 11:00	Qashlu	Yemen	0.3
	08 Nov 2015 12:00	Steroh	Yemen	0.3
	08 Nov 2015 10:00	Qadub	Yemen	0.2
	08 Nov 2015 12:00	Gishub	Yemen	0.2
	08 Nov 2015 14:00	Nait	Yemen	0.2
	08 Nov 2015 20:00	Kilmia	Yemen	0.2
	08 Nov 2015 20:00	Kinshia	Yemen	0.2
	08 Nov 2015 09:00	Mutra	Yemen	0.2
	08 Nov 2015 10:00	Hadiboh	Yemen	0.2
	08 Nov 2015 13:00	Qulansiyah	Yemen	0.2
	10 Nov 2015 06:00	Al Mabrak	Yemen	0.2
	10 Nov 2015 06:00	Shaikh Ahmad	Yemen	0.2
	10 Nov 2015 06:00	Al Hanad	Yemen	0.2
	10 Nov 2015 18:00	Al 'Aws	Yemen	0.2
	09 Nov 2015 02:00	Wareegsimo	Somalia	0.2
	08 Nov 2015 10:00	Siqirah	Yemen	0.1
	09 Nov 2015 02:00	Caluula	Somalia	0.1
	09 Nov 2015 01:00	Bereeda	Somalia	0.1
	10 Nov 2015 05:00	Hisn Bal'id	Yemen	0.1
	10 Nov 2015 12:00	Bi'r Qa'ati	Yemen	0.1
	10 Nov 2015 11:00	Muqaibirah	Yemen	0.1
	09 Nov 2015 03:00	Bandar Murcaayo	Somalia	0.1
	09 Nov 2015 03:00	Geesaley	Somalia	0.1
	09 Nov 2015 01:00	Boho	Somalia	0.1
	10 Nov 2015 02:00	Al Irqah	Yemen	0.1
	10 Nov 2015 01:00	Al Hawrah	Yemen	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.